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Quant Developer — Volatility Forecasting & Regime Detection Model (Systematic Trading) Project Overview We run a systematic trading system with multiple signal sleeves, including trend-following and mean-reversion components. We're looking for a quantitative developer/researcher to build a shared volatility and regime-detection layer that feeds two things: Position sizing — via a volatility forecast used to scale exposure. Dynamic sleeve weighting — via a regime classifier that adjusts the relative allocation between our trend and mean-reversion sleeves based on the current market regime. This is not a new alpha signal — it's infrastructure that sits underneath our existing signals and directly addresses a known risk: trend and mean-reversion sleeves tend to become dangerously correlated during strong trending regimes. We need a systematic way to detect that condition and de-weight accordingly, rather than running both sleeves at static weights. Scope of Work 1. Volatility Forecasting Module Implement and backtest a volatility estimator for use in position sizing. Open to your recommendation on approach, but candidates include: Realized volatility (rolling, various windows) EWMA (RiskMetrics-style) GARCH-family models (GARCH, EGARCH, GJR-GARCH) Compare methods on forecast accuracy and stability, not just in-sample fit. Output: a clean, reusable vol forecast series per instrument, with clear documentation on lookback/parameter choices and how it should be consumed downstream (e.g., target-vol position sizing formula). 2. Regime Detection Module Build a model that classifies market conditions into distinct regimes — at minimum: trending, mean-reverting, and choppy/low-signal. Open to methodology — options include (but aren't limited to) Hidden Markov Models, threshold/rule-based classifiers on trend-strength and autocorrelation metrics, or ML-based classifiers. The core deliverable is a dynamic weighting scheme: a mechanism that adjusts trend vs. mean-reversion sleeve weights based on the current regime classification, rather than static 50/50 (or fixed) weights. Must explicitly handle the sleeve-correlation problem: identify when trend and mean-reversion signals are likely to become highly correlated (typically strong trend regimes) and produce a de-weighting signal in advance or in real time. 3. Integration & Validation Backtest the combined system (existing sleeves + dynamic weighting) against the static-weight baseline, with clear before/after performance and risk metrics (Sharpe, max drawdown, sleeve correlation over time, turnover impact from re-weighting). Document assumptions, parameter sensitivity, and known limitations. Code should be modular enough to swap in alternative vol/regime methods later. Deliverables Well-documented, tested code (Python preferred) for both modules Backtest results and comparison report (static weights vs. dynamic weighting) Written documentation covering methodology, parameter choices, and how to run/maintain the modules Brief handoff walkthrough (call or written) covering how to extend or retrain the models Ideal Candidate Strong background in quantitative finance / systematic trading, ideally with direct experience in volatility modeling (GARCH/EWMA) and regime-switching models (HMM or similar) Comfortable working with time series data, backtesting frameworks, and futures/equities market data Prior experience with multi-strategy or multi-sleeve portfolio construction is a strong plus Python proficiency (pandas, numpy, statsmodels, arch, hmmlearn or similar) Able to explain modeling tradeoffs clearly, not just deliver a black box What We'll Provide Historical price/return data for relevant instruments Existing signal outputs for the trend and mean-reversion sleeves (for correlation analysis and weighting integration) Access for Q&A on system architecture as needed
Project ID: 40593000
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17 freelancers are bidding on average ₹22,245 INR for this job

Your sleeve-correlation problem will blow up during the next sustained trend if you keep running static weights. When both sleeves load the same direction during strong momentum regimes, you are effectively running 2x leverage without realizing it until drawdown hits. Quick questions - what is your current rebalancing frequency for sleeve weights, and are you already tracking rolling correlation between the two sleeves as a risk metric? And what is your target volatility for position sizing (annualized %)? Here is the architectural approach: - VOLATILITY FORECASTING: Build GARCH(1,1) with EWMA fallback for real-time stability, then backtest against realized vol using RMSE and directional accuracy across 2008, 2020, 2022 regimes. - REGIME DETECTION: Implement 3-state HMM trained on autocorrelation + trend strength metrics, with explicit correlation threshold triggers that de-weight when sleeve correlation exceeds 0.7 over rolling 20-day window. - BACKTESTING FRAMEWORK: Deliver modular Python pipeline comparing static vs dynamic weighting across Sharpe, max drawdown, and turnover cost, with parameter sensitivity analysis on rebalancing thresholds. I have built similar multi-sleeve risk systems for 2 prop trading firms that reduced drawdown by 18-22% without sacrificing returns. Let's schedule a 20-minute technical call to align on data format and backtest assumptions before I start coding.
₹22,500 INR in 7 days
5.4
5.4

Dear Sir/Madam, I have experience in Python, data analysis, machine learning, and quantitative research. I can help build volatility forecasting and regime detection models for your trading system with proper backtesting and documentation. I am familiar with time-series analysis, financial data, and model evaluation. I can deliver clean, well-structured code and explain the approach clearly. I look forward to discussing your project. Let’s connect in the chatbox for further discussions. Thank You. Dr. Divya.
₹12,500 INR in 7 days
4.5
4.5

Hello, I can deliver this multi asset volatility regime model efficiently, directly building a shared vol forecasting and regime detection layer to solve your sleeve correlation risk. I will implement an EWMA or GARCH based volatility estimator for position sizing and a regime classifier using HMM or rule based methods to dynamically weight your trend and mean reversion sleeves, backtesting against your static baseline with clear Sharpe and drawdown metrics. With over 5 years in quantitative development and systematic trading, I have deep experience in volatility modeling and regime switching. Send a message to discuss your requirements further or see relevant project samples. Thanks, Adegoke. M
₹22,500 INR in 3 days
3.9
3.9

Hi, how are you doing? I have considerable experience in volatility modeling (EWMA, GARCH-family) and regime detection (HMM/threshold classifiers), plus Python for backtesting and portfolio construction. I’ve built modular analytics layers that feed position sizing and dynamic sleeve weighting, with clear docs and easy swaps for methods. I can demo prior work and deliver backtests comparing dynamic vs static weighting, plus a concise handoff walk-through. Let me know further if interested.
₹37,500 INR in 5 days
3.4
3.4

Hi there, Your project "Multi-Asset Volatility Regime Model" instantly caught my attention — it's exactly the kind of work we love to take on. My goal isn’t simply to finish the task, but to give you real, lasting value for every bit you invest in it. From your brief I can see this involves ai, machine learning — all areas we handle in-house. We specialise in Python, Machine Learning (ML), Risk Management, Documentation, which lines up directly with what you need. How we'd approach it: - Clarify the use-case, inputs and the exact output you expect - Build and integrate the model / automation pipeline - Evaluate accuracy and tune against real examples - Deploy with monitoring and a clear handover You can count on tight communication, on-time delivery, and a result that’s effortless to sign off on. I can start right away and keep you updated at every step — let’s make this a great one. Best regards, FreeLancers360 Let’s connect in chat and get started — message me anytime and I’ll reply right away!
₹12,500 INR in 5 days
3.3
3.3

As someone with deep knowledge and expertise in quantitative finance and systematic trading, I understand the criticality of having efficient and sophisticated models for volatility estimation and regime-switching detection. I have worked extensively on projects involving volatility modeling (such as GARCH and EWMA) and regime-switching models (including HMM) - precisely aligned with your project requirements. My experience encompasses comprehensive back-testing, forecasting, and strategy development which are vital for such a project. Moreover, my proficiency in Python—particularly in using pandas, NumPy, statsmodels—together with my strong data engineering background will enable me to deliver clean and validated code that segments market conditions into distinct regimes accurately adjusts sleeve weights accordingly. Furthermore, my goal-oriented mindset ensures that every solution I provide is not just efficient but also reliable over time. Lastly, but critically, I am more than just an AI engineer, I am a strategic partner who embraces your business objectives and aligns them with the technical implementation. Hence, I am committed to not only delivering robust models but also providing a well-documented methodology for parameter choices and how to run/maintain the modules. With my skill set and commitment, I believe I can create an encompassing solution that not only addresses your current needs but also serves as a foundation for future optimization.
₹23,000 INR in 15 days
2.7
2.7

Hello! I've been recommended by a Freelancer Recruiter. Nice to meet you. I've just completed a similar project for another client, where I applied to build a robust volatility regime model. Why me? Because I bring experience in — Volatility Forecasting & Regime Detection Model, where my skills in and directly address your needs. With a budget of $12500 to $37500 in INR, I can deliver a model that improves accuracy by 20% and provides actionable insights. Chris | Lead Developer | Novatech Multiple 5-star reviews on social apps, real-time media pipelines, and React Native builds. Happy to hop on a quick call to discuss architecture, timeline, and a clear plan + quote. Chris | Lead Developer | Novatech
₹37,500 INR in 8 days
2.8
2.8

To develop a robust and accurate multi-asset volatility regime model, I will utilize my expertise in Python, Machine Learning, and Risk Management to create a shared volatility and regime-detection layer that feeds into your existing signals. This model will enable dynamic sleeve weighting and position sizing via volatility forecasting and regime classification. By leveraging statistical modeling, time series analysis, and backtesting, I will ensure that the model is reliable and effective in adjusting the relative allocation between your trend and mean-reversion sleeves based on the current market regime. This infrastructure will directly address a known risk in your trading system, and I am confident that it will enhance the overall performance of your systematic trading system. Sincerely, Manish S. Are you open to a phased development approach to ensure the model meets your requirements?
₹12,500 INR in 2 days
0.6
0.6

Hello There, Couple of quick questions: - Which asset classes should the regime model cover (equities, ETFs, futures, crypto, forex, etc.), and do you already have the historical data, or should we build the complete data pipeline as part of the project? - Do you already have a preferred regime detection approach (HMM, Markov Switching, GARCH, volatility clustering, etc.), or would you like us to evaluate multiple models and compare their backtesting performance before finalizing the strategy? We have experience in developing research-grade multi-asset quantitative trading models with volatility regime detection, portfolio optimization, walk-forward backtesting, risk management, and performance analytics using Python and leading quantitative finance libraries. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} Our company has 17+ years experience in IT service development. You might see our profile is new, but not new in this business. Kindly open the chatroom, we can discuss your requirement in detail. Also release the payment once we are finish the task as you prefer. Give us a opportunity and we won't fail you. Thanks, Sandeep K.
₹12,500 INR in 7 days
0.0
0.0

A volatility model is only valuable if it improves portfolio decisions. I would focus on building a reusable risk layer that produces stable volatility forecasts and adapts sleeve allocations before trend and mean-reversion strategies become highly correlated. • Compare EWMA, realized volatility, and GARCH-family models using true out-of-sample forecast accuracy and stability rather than in-sample fit. • Develop a modular regime detection framework using HMM or rule-based techniques to classify trending, mean-reverting, and low-signal markets. • Design a dynamic weighting engine that automatically adjusts sleeve exposure while reducing correlation during strong directional regimes. • Validate the framework against your current static allocation using Sharpe ratio, drawdown, turnover, volatility, and rolling sleeve correlation. • Deliver clean Python modules with documentation, parameter sensitivity analysis, and a structure that allows alternative models to be added without rewriting the framework. I have experience developing Python-based analytics, artificial intelligence systems, and data-driven platforms with a strong focus on modular architecture, maintainability, and performance. Please share the historical data frequency, trading universe, and current backtesting framework. I will review the existing pipeline and recommend the most suitable volatility and regime models before implementation begins.
₹30,000 INR in 7 days
0.0
0.0

Hello! I am interested in working on your building project. I can provide accurate planning, quality work, and timely completion while maintaining clear communication throughout the project. I am committed to delivering results that meet your expectations and budget. I would be happy to discuss your project requirements and start as soon as possible. Thank you for considering my proposal.
₹25,000 INR in 7 days
0.0
0.0

You need a shared volatility-forecast + regime layer under your trend and mean-reversion sleeves: size exposure via a vol forecast, and de-weight the sleeves when they turn dangerously correlated in strong-trend regimes. That's a modeling + validation problem — my core. I build leakage-free ML/stat pipelines: on a medical ML project I ran nested cross-validation + Bayesian hyperparameter search across model families, caught and fixed a data-leakage bug in the source method, and reported honest out-of-sample AUC ~0.77 instead of an inflated in-sample figure. I've also built a systematic intraday engine (RSI/EMA/MACD/ATR signals, ATR-scaled exits, regime guards), so I speak both the quant and ML sides. Approach: realized-vol targeting + a vol forecaster (EWMA/GARCH vs an ML benchmark), a regime classifier (HMM / rolling trend-vs-MR correlation state), strict walk-forward validation, and an inspectable sleeve-weight function — no black box, fully documented. Portfolio: https://www.freelancer.com/u/ZohaibSathio Which assets/timeframe are you trading, and can you share the sleeve return series I'd calibrate the regime weights against? — Zohaib, AI Engineer (Voice AI · Autonomous Agents · RAG)
₹22,500 INR in 14 days
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