I am expert in statistics and probability, and math in general, with a PhD degree in computational sciences. I'm familiar with the Kelly criterion, odds, risks, bets, and similar matters. I've done many projects in statistics, including some in betting, risks, and calculation of chances and outcomes. I developed web tools and Excel tools to do calculations for betting on horse races, dog races, fantasy sports, FX trading. Please see reviews on my profile. It would be my pleasure to do your project. Please let me know the details.
Here are related projects in which I calculated predicted probabilities of winning in horse races or in rugby games and optimal bets for those outcomes:
https://www.freelancer.com/projects/Excel/Elo-Rating-Sports-Prediction-Model/
https://www.freelancer.com/projects/Translation/Fantasy-Basketball-Program/
https://www.freelancer.com/projects/Java/Pricing-Algorithm/